Baluchistan International

To revenge Pakistan for its involvement in Afghanistan, Russian KGB started its interest and covert operations in Balochistan. Turkmen writer Tariq Saeedi maintains that,” during the Russo-Afghan war, the Soviet Union was surprised by the ability and resourcefulness of Pakistan to generate a quick and effective resistance movement in Afghanistan. To punish Pakistan and to answer back in the same currency, Kremlin decided to create some organizations that would specialize in sabotage activities in Pakistan. One such organization was BLA (Balochistan Liberation Army), the brainchild of KGB that was built around the core of BSO (Baloch Students Organization). BSO was a group of assorted left-wing students in Quetta and some other cities of Balochistan”.

Balochistan became international in 1967 – 69 when Soviet Union, with the help of Iraq and India set-up an Azad Balochistan Movement and put up a person Juma Khan as its leader. He had no following and was running under ground to Iraq and Syria. I believe he died in exile in Syria. It will be recalled that during Mr Bhutto’s rule, the Iraqi Embassy was raided and much of arms and ammunition confiscated said to being supplied by Iraq to the underground in Balochistan. Iraq came under severe criticism in the Arab world for working against such a staunch friend of Arabs as Pakistan. Iraq explained that they were supporting the Iranian Balochis through Pakistan in their enmity with Iran etc. This was the time if I remember correctly when ZAB had undertaken an operation against Baloch Sardars whom he wanted to eliminate to establish democratic leadership. An interesting fact of Balochistan is that while in Pak Balochistan majority is Shia, in Iranian Balochistan majority is Sunni. Iraq was playing the Sunni card against Iran then, as the official story goes.

[Dr Samiullah Koreshi]

[Baltic Security and Defense Review KGBinAFGH ]

Two Proposed Pipelines To South Asia

After the Russian withdrawal from Afghanistan, BLA lost its major source of funding and went into darkness until American occupation of Afghanistan in 2001 that provided golden chance to India for its stronghold in Afghanistan under the shadow of Pro-Israeli NATO and US forces. BLA is again on the move with Indian, CIA and Mossad’s support who in return have their own objectives in burning Balochistan. In September 2006, it was reported that, “The Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) pumped huge money, into the province, transferred arms and ammunition via Kishan Garh into Dera Bugti, from various routes,”.

Pakistan army claimed to seal the routes of separatists supplies through India and Afghanistan, after high-tech weaponry like surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), 107mm rockets and other lethal weapons were recovered by the law enforcement agencies in the province.  But Indian involvement in burning Balochistan was not blocked and Pakistan officials and security analysts continued explaining the involvement and tactic being used for the destabilization of Balochistan. In interviews published in The Post, Separately, Pakistan’s former Army Chief Aslam Beg and ex-chief of ISI General (retired) Hamid Gul both had accused Indian consulates located in Afghanistan and Iran and the United States with fomenting trouble in Baluchistan.

In the joint statement issued after the meeting of Indo – Pak prime ministers in July 2009 in Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt, Indian involvement in Balochistan’s unrest was first time acknowledged by India and commented Brajesh Mishra, the National Security Advisor and Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister in the NDA government, “This is an indirect acknowledgement by New Delhi that India has a hand in what is going on in Balochistan.” Global security Magazine writes, “Most recently, these activities included the stationing of Indian intelligence officers at Zahedan, Iran close to Baluchistan rebel activities in Pakistan. Pakistan charges India with complicity (via Afghanistan ) in the ethnic crises in the two states of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan: Baluchistan and the Northwest Frontier Province. Pakistan complains that the Indian consulates in the border cities of Jalalabad and Kandahar are involved in fomenting insurgency in its Baluchistan province. Amidst increased fighting in January 2006, Musharraf accused India of arming and financing the militants fighting in Baluchistan. New Delhi categorically rejected the allegations. Islamabad banned the separatist Baluchistan Liberation Army as a terrorist organization in April 2006″.

Indians and Israelis have joined hands to act as the mercenaries for Americans to keep Balochistan burning. Ever since the Taliban were ousted from power and foreign troops landed in Afghanistan in late 2001, the Indians have been using the Afghan soil for sabotage and terror acts in Pakistan. The News International, a leading daily in Pakistan, on February 21, 2010 detailed that over a hundred Baloch dissidents have been sent to India by the Indian consulate, located in Kandahar (Afghanistan) for six-months training. These trainees were promised a monthly salary of $ 500 – 1000 upon completion of the training and working for the employer’s objectives. The newspaper report also revealed the command and control of these trainees. Half of them go under the command of Afghan Border Police chief at Spin Boldak while the rest lot to be put under the command of Afghan Police Chief of Shorawak District of Kandahar province.

Analysis

The 2,700 kilometer pipeline originally sought to transport natural gas from Iran’s South Pars field through Pakistan and into the thirsty Indian market. At every turn, the IPI pipeline has had to compete with the U.S.-championed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline that has hitherto been thwarted by the resilience of the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan.

Since the IPI pipeline’s inception, the Indian government has had to carefully balance energy considerations with the project’s many potential strategic drawbacks.  In the end, it’s more likely that New Delhi will choose to nurture the nascent U.S.-Indian strategic engagement and pull out of the project. India’s decision will no doubt be made easier by Iran’s hard bargaining on gas prices,recent energy discoveries within India, and New Delhi’s reluctance to allow Pakistan any strategic levers in the wake of the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks.

In what is becoming a re-occurring theme in the regional competition between these two BRIC countries, India’s withdrawal from the project could open a door for China. Politicians in New Delhi will be watching intently to see if Beijing swoops up yet another energy prize, and in doing so deepens the Chinese strategic encirclement of India.

The IPI pipeline poses several possible risks and rewards for the Chinese government. With India out of play, Iran has less leverage to drive a hard bargain on gas prices, and a new over-land energy link would help further China’s energy diversification strategy. However, the project faces several political and logistical difficulties that could scuttle Chinese participation.

The pipeline’s path is set to traverse some very difficult terrain in Pakistan’s Gilgit region, increasing the costs and time required to eventually connect to Xinjiang. Moreover, the massive investment required to link China would be imperiled in the event of an American attack on Iran or mass civil upheaval in Pakistan.  Given the geopolitics and the harsh terrain involved, Beijing might just be feigning interest in the IPI pipeline to get a better deal in negotiations with Russia on relatively safer Siberia-China gas pipelines.

If China does become a full partner in the IPI pipeline, however, it will provide another opportunity to build on Beijing’s string of pearls.  Chinese officials have made public their desire to turn the Chinese-built Pakistani port of Gwadar into an energy hub. A link to the IPI pipeline, and over-land transport links in the form of the Karakoram Highway represent substantial Chinese interests in Pakistan. As such, Sino-Pakistani collaborations to build naval facilities and oil refineries at Gwadar are being interpreted by Washington and New Delhi as a prelude to the establishment of a Chinese naval base there. Whether this is true or not, if China joins the IPI project, then the odds of China supporting American efforts to isolate Iran would effectively be reduced to zero.

A string of threats and complaints emanating from Washington have fallen on deaf ears in Pakistan, a country that will be suffering energy shortages as soon as 2012 if new sources are not found. U.S. officials have gone so far as to hint that U.S. aid to Pakistan will be affected if Islamabad goes ahead with the IPI pipeline.  For Pakistan, threats of lowered financial assistance pale in comparison to the threat that energy shortfalls could pose to an already beleaguered Pakistani government.

American diplomats have not been able to scuttle the IPI project and push through their favored TAPI pipeline, an indication of American decline in the region.  States like China, India and Russia are not only increasingly viable alternatives to provide aid, technology, and investment in the region, but are also willing to do business with anyone.

[Ref.http://haroonhaider.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/reportsofindianstrainingbalochdissidents.pdf].